Sunday, August 5, 2012

WALKER: The MMA Stock Exchange - Heavyweight Division (August 2012)

By: Brad Walker, MMATorch Columnist

DosSantosJunior_180_30.jpg
The Stock Exchanges are back and ready to go after the first half of the year has brought us fantastic fights and some incredible breakout performances. I've weighed the stats, checked my lists and made the changes necessary to update the stock exchanges for each weight class. I am going to go in the same order as I did previously starting at the top and working to the bottom ? and at this point I do plan to include flyweight this time around. It has been a hell of a year for MMA thus far, and I know I can't wait to see what's yet to happen ? hopefully you will stay tuned as well. Here's a refresher on the stock exchange and how it works:

--The top fighter in each weight class is labeled "Now"

--The fighter who is most likely to dethrone the top fighter is labeled "Next"

--Finally, each of the following categories get two fighters: "Rising" means they are currently improving their reputation and moving up in the rankings, "Stagnant" means they are stuck in place and need to do something to really get momentum going, and "Dropping" indicates that their stock has begun to drop ? making them a less valued talent at the time. Here we go!


NOW: Junior Dos Santos (15-1) UFC

?Dos Santos has officially defended his title now, and proven to all of the doubters that he has what it takes to be a solid champion in the UFC. He definitively beat former champion Frank Mir, and even hit Mir so hard that he forgot which venue they were in during the fight; pretty impressive right? Dos Santos has absolutely run through every fighter he's come across in the UFC, and the question becomes whether or not someone in this organization is capable of beating him. Sure, he's lost before, but it was just barely a year into his career and for all purposes a total fluke. Next up on his plate is Cain Velasquez, the man from whom he took the title, and perhaps we will get more than just a few seconds of action from them this time.?

NEXT: Cain Velasquez (10-1) UFC

?Cain showed the world against Bigfoot Silva that he can become an entirely new type of monster when he needs to make a statement. Not only did he defeat Silva, he basically smashed his face inside out. The amount of blood shed in that fight was incredible; I'm actually fairly certain Dracula became an MMA fan after that. Cain has only tasted defeat once in his still young career, and he is likely to remain at the top of the heap for years to come. However, can he conquer the man who already handed him defeat? Cain has tremendous striking and his take down defense is borderline unbeatable, but what is going to happen against JDS this time around? We can never know for sure until it happens, but once it does I expect a slugfest of epic proportions with more head movement from Velasquez.

RISING: Daniel Cormier (10-0) Strikeforce

?How do you sum up what Cormier has done to the heavyweight division since his debut on the scene? Destruction, decimation, domination, downright nasty! Cormier has incredible hands and speed for a man of his size, and proved against Josh Barnett that he can take a beating and not run too low on gas in a five round war. Up next for him is Frank Mir, whom he should have scouted very well seeing as his team mate Cain Velasquez was preparing for a bout with him prior to being moved in against Bigfoot Silva. Cormier will enter into the UFC (hopefully) not too long from now, and move to the top of the line to fight the champion ? who could very well be his friend and teammate Velasquez by that time.

RISING: Stefan Struve (24-5) UFC

?If Stefan Struve has told one story to us as fans and analysts in the last year or two of his career it's that he's become a finish or be finished fighter. His long limbs and incredible agility have aided him in defeating his last three opponents by both submission and knockout. His only real losses have come against very powerful strikers, and now that he has found his niche I don't know if he will ever lose again. He made Lavar Johnson look downright silly in May, and he will continue to rise and learn; after all, he is only 24 years old. Next on his list is Stipe Miocic, who should give him a reasonable test, but I fully expect to see Struve progress his record to 25 wins with a great submission victory in that fight.

STAGNANT: Pat Barry (7-5) UFC

?Last time I did the stock exchange Pat was stuck in the "dropping" category for his consecutive losses to Cheick Kongo and Stefan Struve, and although presently he is coming off of a loss to Lavar Johnson, he did show us a much improved submission game against Christian Morecraft. Pat picks spots to strike where nobody really should, like in the clinch with Johnson ? or anywhere in the cage with Stefan Struve - and it leaves me wondering why he does this. He showed us a great submission attempt against Johnson where he actually had a really nice Americana locked in, but failed to finish the attempt, later saying that he was uncomfortable being in the mount. If a fighter is uncomfortable in the mount he probably should be fighting in kickboxing, muay thai or boxing, not in mixed martial arts where it is the most advantageous position you can get from the top. Pat is still an extremely exciting fighter who is rounding out his game, what happens next is up to him, and I truly hope we see him break through.?

STAGNANT: Frank Mir (16-6) UFC

?Mir has finally found his glass ceiling; the only problem for Mir is that his glass ceiling is made up of elite strikers that he will never get past. I don't believe he can beat Cormier, he would get decimated by Velasquez, and Carwin would have a repeat performance of beating Frank's face. Mir for whatever reason under the sun gets into the cage and thinks he's a good striker because he knocked out Big Nog once... and a past his prime CroCop... and Wes Sims in 2004. As long as Mir fails to adapt his game plan to what he is actually capable of he will continue to be a gatekeeper for who is and is not a contender - hell he might be content with that ? but as a fan it's sad to see a former champion get beat up so dramatically. Frank needs to look at himself in the mirror and say "You're not a boxer" 50 times a day until he realizes he can't go blow for blow with the best in the game.

DROPPING: Lavar Johnson (17-6) UFC

?Lavar possesses some of the most powerful hands in the entire sport of mixed martial arts ? and you don't have to take my word for it, just ask Joey Beltran's face, or Pat Barry, or any of the other 13 men he has knocked out in the cage. The only problem is that's the only thing he seems to be capable of doing in the cage. Being a good striker is great, but when you get mounted by Pat Barry and he locks in an Americana on you while making it look second nature, you suck at Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu. Johnson has taken the time to call out fighters before their fights to tell them to keep the BJJ at home, that he wants to fight. Well, welcome to the Ultimate Fighting Championship: home of mixed martial arts. The key word being "mixed." Johnson will continue to knock people out for some time to come, and after a year or so every opponent will take him down and beat him to a pulp, and we will see Lavar "Big" Johnson fighting for Titan or Bellator rather than UFC.

DROPPING: Antonio Silva (16-4) UFC

My bone to pick with Bigfoot is that despite his size and ability he doesn't seem to know how to get off of his back in a fight. He went into his bout with Cormier as the favorite and got absolutely chewed up and spit out. Then when he fought the Mexican-American Daniel Cormier - aka Cain Velasquez - he did the exact same thing, and got his ass kicked from pillar to post like it was nothing. More and more Silva reminds me that his win over Fedor was a matter of size and not skill; he simply had the weight and leverage to put down on him, and had they been closer in weight, that was Fedor's fight to win. I don't think Bigfoot is going to defeat Browne - as a matter of fact I expect to see Browne KO Bigfoot - sending him to the undercard before he eventually gets beaten by Shawn Jordan and then released from the UFC.

Questions? Comments? Suggestions for the other weight classes? Let me know and follow me on Twitter - @BradMMATorch

[Junior dos Santos art by Grant Gould (c) MMATorch.com]

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